This baseline analysis examines how social media narratives are shaping political discourse, civic integrity, and social cohesion in Bangladesh in the lead-up to the 2026 national elections and the planned referendum on the July Charter. Drawing on social media data collected from Facebook, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter) between August and October 2025, the report focuses on the prevalence and dynamics of harmful digital behaviors, including mis- and disinformation, hate speech, and incitement to violence, alongside constructive narratives that promote de-escalation, tolerance, and democratic norms. The findings demonstrate that social media has become a central arena in which Bangladesh’s political transition is being contested, with significant implications for electoral integrity and peace.
The analysis is situated within a context of profound political change following the July 2024 uprising, the resignation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and the establishment of an interim government tasked with overseeing reforms and elections. In this volatile environment, social media platforms are key sites where political actors, media outlets, influencers, and citizens frame the legitimacy of the interim administration, interpret the meaning of the July movement, and mobilize support or opposition ahead of the elections and referendum. While much online discussion reflects routine electoral debate and demands for justice and accountability, a substantial proportion contributes to polarization and digital harm.
Using Build Up’s Phoenix social media monitoring tool, the study analyzed nearly 199K pieces of content, with 71.2K posts classified across six topic:
- Elections
- Human Rights / Justice / Accountability
- Foreign Interference
- Mis- and Disinformation
- Hate Speech
- Incitement to Violence
Facebook emerged as the dominant platform in terms of reach and sustained engagement across demographics, serving as a primary space for political commentary and mobilization. TikTok, while lower in volume, generated exceptionally high engagement through emotionally charged short-form videos, including leader-centric content, dramatized accounts of the July uprising, and election-related messaging. X functioned largely as a platform for elite commentary and real-time political debate, with a notable concentration of geopolitically framed narratives and claims of foreign interference.
Across platforms, the analysis identifies significant levels of harmful digital content. Hate speech is deeply embedded in political discourse, frequently targeting political opponents and religious or communal groups through dehumanizing language and historically loaded slurs. Incitement to violence, while smaller in volume, represents the most acute risk, including explicit calls for physical confrontation and narratives that normalize mob justice. Mis- and disinformation often blends partial truths with unverified or false claims, portraying the interim government, international actors, civil society organizations, and minority communities as foreign-backed conspirators. These narratives erode trust in institutions and independent information sources and interact with hate speech and calls to violence to intensify polarization.
At the same time, the analysis identifies a substantial presence of constructive narratives. Calls for de-escalation, peaceful political engagement, religious tolerance, and restraint generated high levels of engagement across platforms, as did content warning about the spread of mis- and disinformation and encouraging verification and responsible online behavior. These dynamics indicate that digital spaces in Bangladesh are not only sites of risk, but also potential entry points for resilience, dialogue, and harm reduction.
Overall, this baseline highlights a highly contested and volatile information environment in which digital narratives are playing a critical role in shaping public trust, civic integrity, and social cohesion. The risks identified are not solely technical or platform-specific, but deeply political and narrative-driven, rooted in historical grievances, power struggles, and unresolved questions of legitimacy. Understanding how these narratives circulate and evolve online is essential for anticipating points of escalation and for designing timely, context-sensitive interventions to support a more informed, inclusive, and peaceful democratic process as Bangladesh approaches the 2026 elections and July Charter referendum.