This report examines Bangladesh’s political discourse and civic integrity during November–December 2025, in the lead-up to the 2026 General Elections and the July Charter referendum. Building on the August–October 2025 baseline analysis, the report analyses data from Facebook, TikTok, and X to track the evolution of harmful digital narratives and behaviours (including misinformation, hate speech, and incitement to violence) alongside constructive narratives related to de-escalation, democratic norms, and social cohesion.
Findings show that social media remains a key arena for contesting political transition and electoral legitimacy, with narratives intensifying as the election approaches, alongside persistent calls for peace and de-escalation of violence. Bangladesh’s political landscape underwent significant changes during this two-month period. Major offline developments – including the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdict against Sheikh Hasina, the assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi, the return of Tarique Rahman, and the death of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia – triggered sharp spikes in online activity. These moments both amplified harmful narratives and, in some cases, generated rare instances of cross-political consensus around justice, restraint, and public respect. At the same time, narratives around foreign interference, particularly those implicating India, became more prominent and increasingly intertwined with challenges to the legitimacy of the interim government. Overall, November and December were characterised by persistent polarization and the continued spread of digital harm, with online discussions closely mirroring political developments on the ground.
Taken together, this continuation analysis confirms that Bangladesh’s online information environment remains volatile and highly contested as the electoral period approaches. Digital narratives increasingly shape civic integrity, public trust, and social cohesion, with online discourse often amplifying polarization, mis/disinformation, and risks of escalation into offline harm. In this context, sustained monitoring and a deeper understanding of digital harms are essential to anticipating emerging risks, informing coordinated responses, and identifying opportunities for de-escalation. Timely, evidence-based interventions will be critical to ensuring that the online information space supports — rather than undermines — a peaceful and credible electoral process in the months ahead.
| KEY INSIGHTS 1. Digital polarization mirrors deep political fragmentation | The online landscape reflects Bangladesh’s contested political transition, with competing narratives over the legitimacy of the interim government, the meaning of the July 2024 uprising, and the credibility of democratic institutions. This fragmentation threatens to undermine voter confidence and institutional trust as elections approach. 2. Offline political violence directly fuels online escalation | Major events including the ICT verdict against Sheikh Hasina, the assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi, Tarique Rahman’s return, and Khaleda Zia’s death triggered massive spikes in social media activity. The correlation between real-world violence (arson, bombings, protests) and inflammatory online content suggests a dangerous feedback loop where digital and physical tensions reinforce each other. 3. Foreign interference narratives are weaponizing regional tensions | Anti-India sentiment has intensified due to perceived Indian interference, asylum provision for Awami League leaders, and alleged involvement in domestic violence. This geopolitical dimension adds complexity to the electoral environment, as political actors leverage external threats to delegitimize opponents and rally nationalist sentiment. It further risks inflaming nationalist sentiments, exacerbating communal tensions, and complicating Bangladesh’s regional diplomatic environment during the election period. 4. The interim government faces a legitimacy crisis in digital spaces | Awami League-aligned accounts systematically challenge the Yunus administration’s mandate and independence, particularly around the electoral process and July Charter referendum. This sustained delegitimization campaign, amplified across platforms, risks eroding public acceptance of electoral outcomes regardless of their credibility. 5. Constructive counter-narratives demonstrate resilience potential | Calls for peace, de-escalation, and fact-checking show that online spaces can support civic integrity. The cross-political consensus around Osman Hadi’s death and Khaleda Zia’s passing reveals moments where shared values can transcend polarization, suggesting opportunities for strategic intervention. 6. Digital harms are systematic electoral risks, not isolated incidents | The persistent presence of mis/disinformation, hate speech, and incitement to violence across all platforms indicates that these are structural features of the current information environment. As electoral timelines compress, these dynamics will likely intensify, directly threatening the credibility and peacefulness of the February 2026 elections. 7. Jamaat-linked disinformation campaigns are actively shaping the information environment ahead of the elections | The analysis identifies a notable volume of content accusing Jamaat and its affiliates of spreading false, exaggerated, or manipulated narratives to inflate perceptions of popular support and discredit political rivals. This includes rumor-based campaigning, strategic distortion of events, and coordinated messaging designed to manufacture legitimacy and influence voter perceptions. Such practices risk distorting political competition and weakening informed civic participation ahead of the polls. 8. Communal and religious targeting poses physical security risks | Anti-minority rhetoric, particularly targeting Hindu communities, and religiously coded political attacks create conditions where online hostility can translate into offline violence. The Dipu Chandra Das incident demonstrates how quickly digital narratives can fuel dangerous mob dynamics during the electoral period. |