Social Media, Influence and Polarization in Somaliland

Key Takeaways:

TikTok has become the most influential platform during the 2024 elections, particularly among young voters. Influencers played a key role in amplifying the key political narratives or sometimes initiating the narratives themselves, with Waddani – the main opposition party’s candidate Abdirahman Cirro, receiving more visibility online. Unlike X, which hosted more polarised debates, and Facebook, which remained a space for, primarily, official news, TikTok was the primary platform for campaign mobilisation. 

Key TikTok influencers were amplifying Waddani party campaigns, making the main opposition party more digitally visible than the ruling party – Kulmiye. Influencers such as @qooqaga_qaranka and @ugbaadaragsan34 were more noticeable and drove online engagement, producing viral contents that contributed to Waddani’s online visibility. Kulmiye party, on the other hand, relied more on traditional online engagement, through Facebook and X but struggled to match Waddani’s online reach, reflecting the increasing power of influencer-driven campaigns. 
The analysis reveals age-based differences in platform use and political engagement. Younger voters were active on TikTok, engaging with influencer-led content, while older individuals relied on Facebook for structured political discourse, preferring official media outlets and party pages. Meanwhile, most X users in our analysis were members of the diaspora, discussing governance and sovereignty. 

Foreign narratives that shaped social media discussions include  claims that former U.S. President – since then elected as a President- Donald Trump’s plan to recognise Somaliland sparked widespread excitement among Somaliland online users.Taiwan’s involvement in electoral support divided opinion, with some viewing it as democratic assistance and others as political interference.

The National Electoral Commission (NEC) largely received positive engagement for its adoption of innovative technologies such as the IRIS Biometric Voter Verification System (IRIS-BVVS). This system was widely credited with reducing voter fraud and enhancing electoral transparency, and its successful implementation attracted broad public support. However, the NEC was not immune to criticism, particularly around delays in result announcements and its management of observer missions – issues that, while not dominant, reflected pockets of public skepticism.

Allegations of voter buying against both Waddani and Kulmiye parties gained traction online. Although these posts were relatively limited in number, they garnered significant engagement, indicating a heightened sensitivity to issues of electoral integrity. The debate around the signing and enforcement of the electoral Code of Conduct also featured prominently, with many users praising it as a key step towards peaceful and credible elections.

X emerged as the most polarized digital space. The platform hosted heated debates around election legitimacy, foreign influence, and territorial sovereignty—particularly in relation to the controversial MoU between Somaliland and Ethiopia. These discussions often intersected with broader regional geopolitics, drawing in issues such as Somaliland’s diplomatic recognition, its evolving relationship with Taiwan, and tensions with Somalia, thus intensifying digital polarization.

Content analysis using Google’s Perspective API revealed that online discussions around elections, foreign relations, and clan-based identity politics were the primary drivers of toxicity, with election-related content showing the highest levels of severe toxicity, identity-based attacks, and threats. This indicates that political discourse in Somaliland’s digital spaces remains highly contentious, and at times, inflammatory, underscoring the importance of early warning mechanisms and content moderation strategies to mitigate digital harms in future electoral cycles.